# Investors price in a 32.6% AI productivity gain for software engineers

> Economists estimate that stock market movements imply investors expect AI to raise software engineering productivity by 32.6%. The figure reflects market expectations, not a direct measurement of developers’ output.

Oossa · 2026-09-29 · https://oossa.com/en/investors-price-in-a-32-6-ai-productivity-gain-for-software-engineers

Researchers from UC Berkeley and the London School of Economics estimated how company share prices reacted to AI-related news, comparing firms with different shares of software engineering staff. They say investors’ expectations between November 2022 and December 2025 amounted to a permanent 32.6% productivity increase for software engineering.

The estimate is forward-looking: the authors did not measure how much more code developers actually produced, and they warn that markets can be too optimistic or pessimistic. Their model also links the estimated gains to a GDP increase equivalent to 3.61%, but that too is an implication of the model, not a measured outcome.

## The facts

- The study covers November 2022 to December 2025.
- The authors’ model translates the market-implied gain into a GDP increase equivalent to 3.61%.

## Why it matters

The estimate offers a measure of what investors expect AI to deliver, while underscoring that those expectations may not become real-world productivity gains.

## Sources & references

1. [Investors are pricing in a 32.6% AI productivity boost for software engineers](https://www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/09/29/investors-are-pricing-in-a-326-ai-productivity-boost-for-software-engineers/5299645) – The Register, 2026-09-29

Last updated: 2026-09-29