# McKinsey forecasts 11 million US workers could need new jobs by 2036

> The consulting firm estimates about 7 % of the U.S. labor force may face AI‑driven displacement, with most needing extensive retraining.

Oossa · 2026-09-29 · https://oossa.com/en/mckinsey-forecasts-11-million-us-workers-could-need-new-jobs-by-2036

A new McKinsey report says roughly 11 million American workers could be forced to change occupations over the next ten years because of artificial‑intelligence systems. That works out to about one in fourteen workers, or 7 % of the total workforce. The study warns that most of those people will need substantial retraining to stay employed.

The report arrives as voters in the United States and abroad are growing uneasy about AI. A recent Washington Post analysis found that AI or data‑center policies were mentioned in 40 % of U.S. midterm election campaigns. In France, AI sovereignty was a common theme among presidential hopefuls, according to Le Monde. Despite the political buzz, the U.S. Senate has not moved forward on AI‑safety legislation, a gap noted by Semafor.

## What the numbers mean

McKinsey’s projection is based on current adoption rates of generative AI tools and automation technologies across sectors like finance, manufacturing and customer service. The firm expects the share of jobs at high risk of automation to rise from 5 % today to 12 % by 2036. Jobs that involve routine data entry, basic analysis or repetitive manual tasks are the most vulnerable.

Retraining will not be a quick fix. The report estimates that the average worker will need 12‑18 months of upskilling, often in fields such as advanced data analytics, AI system oversight, or skilled trades that are harder to automate.

## Why it matters for everyday people

If the forecast holds, many families could see their main source of income shift to a new line of work. The need for longer, more intensive training could strain household budgets and require support from employers or government programs. Knowing which occupations are at risk can help workers start preparing now, rather than waiting for a sudden job loss.

## The facts

- McKinsey predicts 11 million U.S. workers (about 7 % of the workforce) may need to change jobs by 2036 because of AI displacement.
- The share of jobs at high risk of automation is expected to grow from 5 % today to 12 % in ten years.
- 40 % of U.S. midterm election campaigns mentioned AI or data‑center policies, per a Washington Post analysis.
- Retraining for displaced workers is projected to take 12‑18 months on average.
- AI safety legislation has stalled in the U.S. Senate, according to Semafor.

## Why it matters

For most people, the forecast means a higher chance that their current job could be automated, which may require months of new training and possibly a career shift. Early awareness can give workers a head start on learning skills that are harder for AI to replace.

## Sources & references

1. [Around 11 million US workers may face AI displacement](https://www.semafor.com/article/09/29/2026/around-11-million-us-workers-may-face-ai-displacement) – Semafor, 2026-09-29

Last updated: 2026-09-29