# RBA sees weaker job prospects for young workers in AI-exposed fields

> An Australian central bank analysis finds younger workers are faring worse in fields such as software and customer service, but it does not show AI caused the decline.

Oossa · 2026-11-15 · https://oossa.com/en/rba-sees-weaker-job-prospects-for-young-workers-in-ai-exposed-fields

Young Australians entering fields with high potential exposure to artificial intelligence have seen weaker employment outcomes than older workers since late 2022, according to an analysis by Mike Major for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The areas examined include programming, clerical work and customer service. The analysis finds that employment among young people in the most exposed group fell while employment among older workers rose.

Job postings have declined across all the groups studied since ChatGPT launched, with the largest drop in occupations rated most exposed to AI. Among workers in that group, people aged 15 to 24 and young college graduates have lower employment rates and higher unemployment than older workers. The analysis tracks occupations’ theoretical exposure to AI; it does not establish that employers used AI to replace workers.

## The evidence has important limits

Major cautions that the figures do not prove AI caused the weaker outcomes. Changes in the business cycle or in remote work could also explain them, and potential exposure is not the same as companies actually using AI. Data from jobs platform SEEK suggest AI is both complementing existing work and creating demand for AI skills.

Research elsewhere has reported similar patterns among young workers, though not a clear economy-wide jobs shock. A Stanford study of US payroll records found employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations was down 13 percent in relative terms since late 2022, with a decline of nearly 20 percent for young software developers. An Anthropic study published in March 2026 found job-finding rates for young workers in exposed occupations down about 14 percent, but no systematic rise in overall unemployment.

## AI may change the route into a career

Other findings underline why exposure figures need context. A study of 25,000 workers in Denmark found no measurable change in wages or hours despite 64 percent AI adoption; workers saved an average of 2.8 percent of their time. Separately, research led by Morgan Frank at the University of Pittsburgh found that problems in US occupations exposed to AI began in early 2022, before ChatGPT launched, pointing to other possible causes such as interest-rate changes or a correction after pandemic-era hiring.

There are signs of new demand alongside the concerns about entry-level work. LinkedIn reported that AI-related job postings grew sixfold in one year, and the World Economic Forum said 77 percent of surveyed companies were prioritizing worker upskilling over job cuts. Those trends do not settle what will happen to junior roles: the RBA analysis is an early warning signal, not proof of a lasting AI-driven employment shift.

## The facts

- The RBA analysis focuses on entry-level workers and occupations with high potential AI exposure, including programming, clerical work and customer service.
- Since late 2022, employment among young people in the highest-exposure group has fallen while employment among older workers has risen.
- A Stanford study found relative employment declines of 13 percent for US workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations and nearly 20 percent for young software developers.
- A Denmark study of 25,000 workers found no measurable change in wages or hours despite 64 percent AI adoption; workers saved an average of 2.8 percent of their time.

## Why it matters

For young people choosing or starting careers in software, clerical work or customer service, the RBA findings point to weaker job prospects than older workers currently face. But the analysis cannot show that AI caused the gap, so it does not establish that these jobs are disappearing or predict how hiring will change.

## Sources & references

1. [Australia's central bank finds AI hitting young workers first, especially in software and customer service](https://the-decoder.com/australias-central-bank-finds-ai-hitting-young-workers-first-especially-in-software-and-customer-service/) – The Decoder, 2026-11-15

Last updated: 2026-11-15