# UK’s £400bn AI forecast came from Google-commissioned report

> The government’s current estimate is £55bn to £140bn by 2030. The AI minister called even that range highly uncertain.

Oossa · 2026-11-04 · https://oossa.com/en/uk-s-400bn-ai-forecast-came-from-google-commissioned-report

The UK government’s often-cited claim that AI could add £400 billion to the economy came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy Public First, AI minister Kanishka Narayan told Parliament. The government’s own estimate is £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion; Narayan said it is “hugely uncertain.”

The government had used the £400 billion figure for almost two years, although ministers had the lower estimate by November 2025. Narayan’s answer did not withdraw the older figure or say it was wrong.

## The facts

- Government estimate: £55bn–£140bn by 2030, with a £120bn central estimate.
- The £400bn figure came from a 2023 Google-commissioned report by Public First.

## Why it matters

For UK taxpayers and policymakers, the gap matters because AI’s projected economic gains may inform public spending and policy, but the government has not withdrawn the widely repeated £400 billion figure.

## Sources & references

1. [UK Officials Said AI Would Add £400 Billion to the Economy. That Figure Mainly Came From Google](https://www.wired.com/story/uk-officials-said-ai-would-add-400-billion-to-the-economy-that-figure-mainly-came-from-google/) – Wired, 2026-11-04

Last updated: 2026-11-04