The UK government’s often-cited claim that AI could add £400 billion to the economy came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy Public First, AI minister Kanishka Narayan told Parliament. The government’s own estimate is £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion; Narayan said it is “hugely uncertain.”
The government had used the £400 billion figure for almost two years, although ministers had the lower estimate by November 2025. Narayan’s answer did not withdraw the older figure or say it was wrong.
Why it matters
For UK taxpayers and policymakers, the gap matters because AI’s projected economic gains may inform public spending and policy, but the government has not withdrawn the widely repeated £400 billion figure.
